Race and Representation in Battleground Counties

An Analysis of Racial Disparities in Voter Turnout and Ballot Rejections in the 2020 Presidential Election

Michael Latner, Liza Gordon-Rogers

Published Aug 7, 2024

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This analysis explores data from the 2020 presidential election for 11 counties in seven battleground states — counties that will likely be pivotal in the outcome of the 2024 election.

Information is made available through an interactive map, which presents data at the voting precinct level and includes the racial demographics for each precinct.

The results show significant racial disparities in both voter turnout and ballot rejection rates, with 2020 turnout in the 11 featured counties highest in majority-White precincts (with an average turnout of 78%) and considerably lower in majority-Black (59%) and majority-Hispanic (54%) precincts. 

The data also show that voters living in low-turnout precincts were more likely to have their provisional or absentee ballots rejected, further increasing the impact of racial inequities in the voting system. In particular, majority-Black and majority-Hispanic precincts were twice as likely to have a higher incidence of ballot rejections compared with majority-White precincts.

The complete data set and technical appendix for this analysis are available for download.

Citation

Latner, Michael, Liza Gordon-Rogers. 2024. Race and Representation in Battleground Counties: An Analysis of Racial Disparities in Voter Turnout and Ballot Rejections in the 2020 Presidential Election. Cambridge, MA: Union of Concerned Scientists. https://doi.org/10.47923/2024.15576

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