If the Vineyard Wind and Revolution Wind projects had been up and running over the past two decades, the power produced would have cut the number of days with elevated blackout risk by 42%, according to an analysis released today by the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS).
The analysis found that the risk of electricity blackouts over the winter—when energy demand is high during periods of extreme cold from December through February—decreases with the amount of offshore wind power deployed.
“It turns out that during the coldest winter months when we are burning the most fuel to keep our homes warm, offshore wind is at its peak,” said Susan Muller, lead author of the study and senior energy analyst at UCS. “Our analysis found that adding offshore wind generation would significantly offset the increased demand that drives blackout risk during cold snaps. Additional offshore wind also would eliminate the need to subsidize oil and gas generators for stockpiling the backup fuels that have been used as a band aid to get through the winter.”
Electric ratepayers in New England have paid the owner of the Mystic Generating Station about $750 million for backup fuel over the past two years and about $80 million for the first year of the two-year Inventoried Energy Program, which compensates oil and gas generators for supplemental fuel arrangements during the months of December through February.
UCS submitted the study to the Maine Governor’s Energy Office to inform a request for proposals that the Maine Public Utilities Commission will issue for developing and constructing offshore wind projects. The findings, however, should influence all New England states that are considering how to beef up winter electricity reliability and lower consumer costs.
According to the analysis, if the Vineyard Wind and Revolution Wind projects had been operating over the past 22 winters, from 2000 to 2022, the most recent years for which there is data, the average number of days when high demand would have increased the risk of a blackout effectively would have dropped from 60 days each winter to 35, or by 42%. If 4,000 megawatts (MW) had been operating during that period, it would have reduced the number of these types of at-risk days to 11, or by 82%. An 8,000 MW fleet would have slashed those days to just two.
The analysis looked closely at two of the worst Northeast winters: the 2013-2014 winter, as well as the 2017-2018 winter when the Massachusetts government issued an emergency order lifting the number of hours truck drivers could drive to transport fuel to power plants running dangerously low. The Vineyard Wind and Revolution Wind projects would have greatly reduced the blackout risk in both of those winters. Offshore wind capacity of 8,000 MW would have eliminated all days with demand-driven risk in the 2017-2018 winter and eliminated all but one day when this risk factor was elevated in the 2013-2014 winter.